Marc Ambinder throws down the gaunlet too. There are 193 comments there, for your viewing pleasure, which tear Ambinder’s theory apart. But he likes to do that — I doubt he agrees with much of his “prediction”. He’s very good at coming up with an argument and sort of stepping away.
That being said, those 193 comments have given me a lot of pause about Palin’s chances in 2012. Not least of all because she may not be re-elected in Alaska in 2010. That doesn’t really mean anything, the GOP base might still love her.
Here’s the thing though: if Wall Street Republicans are horrified with Palin (and were with Huckabee) and they defect en masse this year, what is to say they are coming back in another four? Palin may well be the nominee for the Looney Tunes faction of the GOP, but how will they fund an operation without Wall Street? Even if Palin rebuilds her chops over the next four years, there are a lot of smart people who will be unwilling to forgive and forget (Ambinder mentions Peggy Noonan — puhlease).
I will remind readers that Ambinder also predicted a Hillary victory by a large margin, and though Obama would never run this time around if Hillary did. So much for theories.